TO:		Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
FROM:		Elizabeth Moore and Robert Lawrence
SUBJECT:		How about a carrot for Iran?
DATE:		May 12, 2006

Dear Madame Secretary:

This is an update of a memo sent to you on April 24.

Since the Big Five of the United Nations Security Council have decided to develop a package of both carrots and sticks to use in negotiating with Iran, we propose that you include SAFE POWER as one of the carrots.

SAFE POWER is a new idea. It's positive and constructive. It would probably be attractive to the leaders of Iran. Here at home it could be bipartisan, restoring the United States' reputation for civility and cooperation in foreign relations. It would help mend our tattered image around the world.

SAFE POWER

Iran is threatening to throw a monkey wrench into the world's big long-term deal on nuclear weapons.

For a long time the rhetoric on both sides got nastier every day.

Then the tone changed when President Ahmadinejad on May 8 sent his long, harshly critical letter to President Bush, the first direct Iran/U.S. communication since the Iran hostage crisis in l979. Although the letter contained no specific suggestions for resolving the nuclear issue, the Iranian government subsequently offered to engage in serious negotiations to get past the impasse.

The U.S., which has not negotiated directly with Iran since the l979 break, has to date proposed only sticks in its talks at the UN Security Council: threats of sanctions and hints of military action.

This approach went over like a lead balloon with the Chinese and Russians....

Let's try something new: SAFE POWER, a very smart carrot.

Iranian leaders say that they desperately need electric power. Let's offer them a better way.

The international community, under your leadership, could quickly organize SAFE POWER, a package of renewable ways to save and generate electricity. It would include bargain-basement prices on energy-saving light bulbs and appliances, wind turbines, solar electric panels, geothermal installations and power plants that burn biomass or harness hydropower. It would provide the technical experts needed to train local labor to install the systems and even to manufacture them to meet future needs.

What about Iran’s solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and biomass resources? Detailed data are hard to come by, but news organizations have reported that: (1) Iran has 324 days of sunshine a year (Mehr News Agency); (2) 6,500 mw of electric power are produced by wind turbines on l7 wind farms (IranMania October 2004); (3) Iran’ s first pilot geothermal power plant will be built in Sabalan, with similar projects in the works for other parts of the country (Tehran Times, November 2004); (4) installed hydropower capacity will be more than 5,000 mw by May 8, 2006, with a long-term goal of 30,000 mw (Iran Daily April 2005); (5) Iran’s New Energies Organization is preparing a biomass atlas (BBC News, February 15, 2006); and (6) 0.2% of Iran’s oil revenue will be used to develop new energy sources (BBC News, February 15, 2006).

In short, Iran has renewable resources and the Iranian government has already made a small but signIficant commitment to develop them. It's a big task, and they would probably be very grateful for help from the international community.

There are scientists, engineers and political leaders across the globe who have the know-how, and who passionately believe that renewables and efficiency are the way to go. They would jump at the chance to be part of SAFE POWER. Funding, products, systems and experts could come from interested countries, from multinational groups such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund--and from foundations, companies and individuals all over the world who believe that the Age of Sanity is not behind us.

We could then say to Iran,

“We understand that you have huge needs for electric power, now and in the future.

“We will give you access to our international SAFE POWER program If you promise to (1) stop enriching uranium; (2) get fuel for your electric power plants--enriched fuel rods--from another country (Russia has volunteered, and it's reported that a deal has already been cut); (3) get an agreement from that other country that it will extract the plutonium from the spent fuel rods you send them from your power plants; and (4) open ALL of your nuclear facilities to full and unfettered IAEA inspections.

“You will then be welcomed as a full and respected partner in the world community.

“P.S. We’ll also know that you mean it when you say that your goal is nuclear electricity, not weapons.”

In other words, we could offer SAFE POWER as a big, delicious, nutritious carrot.

THE NUCLEAR GENIE COMES BACK TO HAUNT US

Ever since the nuclear genie came out of the bottle during World War II, the international community has been trying to cope with a mind-blowing fact: generating electricity with nuclear fuel is only a step away from making nuclear weapons.

We’ve tried to stuff the genie back into the bottle. We created the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and it’s been signed by 187 countries. For sixty years no nuclear weapon has been fired by one nation against another.

However, Cuba, Israel, India and Pakistan never signed the NPT. North Korea signed, but then resigned. India, Israel and Pakistan now have nuclear weapons. Expert opinions differ about the size of North Korea’s current arsenal, but Korean officials insist that they are determined to join the nuclear club.

Now Iranian leaders say that they desperately need electric power---which is true. They also say that they intend to get that power by building nuclear power plants and enriching uranium to use as fuel. They recently announced that they have already produced some of the powerful isotope uranium 235 needed to generate power and/or make weapons, and that they intend to produce a lot more in the future. There’s a widespread rumor that Pakistani nuclear black marketeer Abdul Qadeer Kahn secretly sold Iran the technology for P-2, a powerful new system for large-scale enrichment of uranium.

Iranian leaders steadfastly maintain that their nuclear program is going to be used exclusively to produce electricity, and that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) may come in and check their civilian programs. Many world leaders don’t believe they will keep that promise, especially since Iran insists that their military nuclear program is off limits to IAEA inspectors.

What can the NPT countries, including the US, do? So far we have negotiated only with sticks.

The U.S., Britain and France want to talk about sanctions, such as freezing Iran's overseas assets and restricting travel by Iranian diplomats. But, as they say in Texas, that dog won't hunt. China and Russia refuse to consider sanctions, probably because China has big investments in Iran and needs Iranian oil, and Russia has sold nuclear reactors to Iran.

The United States has said that “all options are on the table.” But any student in Political Science 101 knows that the current Administration, faced with mid-term elections later this year, daily American troop casualties and an Iraqui political system frequently on the verge of a nervous breakdown, would find it impossible to sell the American public on an invasion of Iran.

Then we hear rumors that the U.S. may be thinking of using bunker-busting nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment facilities--a move which would trigger mass demonstrations here and abroad. Former British Foreign Minister Jack Snow has said the idea is “Nuts.”

LET'S TRY THE SAFE POWER CARROT

As the teenagers would say, “SAFE POWER is real cool.” Global warming scientists and national security gurus would agree.

it would also help mend America's tattered image across the world.

Let’s give it a try.

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Elizabeth Moore served as Public Interest Adviser at the inception of the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), now the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, Colorado.

Robert Lawrence, Professor of Political Science at Colorado State University in Ft. Collins, is an expert on nuclear proliferation and has served as a consultant to the Stanford Research Institute.

Scientific and technical advice was provided by Arthur Bierman, Professor of Physics, emeritus, with the City College of the City University of New York.